All five are free on Substack. Read them in any order. Together they show the range of the note and the edge inside it: a call, the evidence for it, the case against it, and the number that would prove it wrong.
Proxies dressed up as the real thing: an unemployment rate, a guidance path, a credit index, a fund flow, each one restatable by its owner. Then the one asset that is not. Four calls, four kills. Start here if you want to see how the note argues.
READ ITThe bond repricing everyone blamed on oil, taken apart: the curve did the opposite of what a supply shock does, so the move is policy wearing a supply costume. The note that carries the sharpest THE CALL of the summer, and the one the argument rules were rebuilt around.
READ ITHormuz closed, oil at ninety, the curve backing up, and equities pricing almost none of it. The trade is not a direction, it is the variance that is on sale into a binary. Start here if you want to see how a mispricing gets built into a position rather than a prediction.
READ ITA ceasefire with the shelf life of milk, and a regime that cannot be modeled with a coherent-state playbook because nobody can say who is running it. Geopolitics read as positioning, with the crowded trades named.
READ ITThe first crack in the AI capex story, found in a phone price hike and a memory shortage rather than in a headline. Twelve stocks at highs inside an index at highs, record inflows chased by record outflows. Start here if you want the breadth argument before it was consensus.
READ ITLiked the argument? The position is below the line.